An Analysis of Tariff Shocks, Policy Volatility & Small Business Resilience in Four States
Research by University of Texas at Austin Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs graduate students Janet Perez Shensky, John Paul, Andre Cowan and Stephanie Mora, advised by Professor Dilawar Syed, examines how the 2025 U.S. tariff regime affected small businesses in California, Georgia, Illinois and Colorado. Using trade, employment and SBA lending data, the report finds that tariffs and policy uncertainty disproportionately burden small firms, particularly in the agriculture, manufacturing and retail sectors, limiting their ability to invest, hire and grow.